Every new home needs flooring, and so does every renovation. So if you're weighing up where to open a flooring business, it helps to know where people are moving and where homes are being built.
This guide brings together the latest public figures for 11 regional Victorian areas, each home to an open National Floors territory: population at 30 June 2025, growth over 2024–25, new homes approved in 2025–26, and Victoria's housing target for each area to 2051.
The numbers, area by area
| Area (council) | People, June 2025 | Growth 2024–25 | New homes approved 2025–26 | Housing target to 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Geelong | 295,052 | +2.2% | 3,212 | 128,600 |
| Greater Bendigo | 126,568 | +1.0% | 852 | 37,000 |
| Ballarat | 122,661 | +1.7% | 1,380 | 46,900 |
| Greater Shepparton | 69,865 | +0.6% | 667 | 15,250 |
| Mildura | 57,309 | +0.3% | 431 | 8,500 |
| East Gippsland (Bairnsdale) | 49,669 | +1.0% | 361 | 11,000 |
| Wellington (Sale) | 46,551 | +0.6% | 204 | 8,000 |
| Wodonga | 44,717 | +1.2% | 421 | 15,200 |
| Moorabool (Bacchus Marsh) | 40,472 | +1.9% | 336 | 20,000 |
| Campaspe (Echuca) | 37,954 | −0.1% | 248 | 4,500 |
| Warrnambool | 36,255 | +1.0% | 401 | 7,200 |
For comparison, Victoria as a whole grew 1.8% in 2024–25. Population figures are the ABS's preliminary estimates for 30 June 2025. New homes are dwellings approved in the 2025–26 financial year.
Five things the figures show
Geelong builds on a different scale
Greater Geelong approved 3,212 new homes in 2025–26, more than the next three areas on this list put together (Ballarat, Bendigo and Shepparton approved 2,899 between them). It added 6,376 residents in a year, and Victoria's target for the city is 128,600 new homes by 2051.
Geelong and Bacchus Marsh are growing fastest
Greater Geelong grew 2.2% in 2024–25, the fastest of the 11 council areas here, and Moorabool Shire grew 1.9%. Within Moorabool, the Bacchus Marsh urban area grew 2.5%, and Victoria's target for the shire is 20,000 new homes by 2051.
Ballarat, Warrnambool and Geelong build the most for their size
For every 1,000 residents, Ballarat, Warrnambool and Geelong each approved about 11 new homes in 2025–26, against about 4 in Wellington Shire. That's our calculation from the ABS figures above. One year's approvals can swing a long way, though: Ballarat's doubled from 690 the year before, and Warrnambool's from 205. Approvals also aren't finished homes, so read them as a signal, not a forecast.
Border towns are bigger than their council figures
Three of these territories sit on the Murray, and their towns run into NSW. At the 2021 Census, Albury–Wodonga had about 97,800 people, Mildura–Buronga about 53,600 and Echuca–Moama about 22,600. Campaspe Shire shrank slightly in 2024–25, but the Echuca–Moama urban area grew 1.1%, with the growth on the Moama side.
The 2051 targets point to decades of building
Victoria's housing targets for these 11 areas add up to more than 300,000 new homes by 2051. They're targets rather than forecasts, but they show where the state is planning for growth, and every one of those homes will need floors.
What this means if you're thinking about a flooring franchise
Flooring follows housing: new homes, renovations, and homes being sold or rented out all need floors. Population growth on its own doesn't make a business, but it shows where demand is heading. When you look at a territory, look at:
- How many people live within a short drive, not just in the town itself
- Where new homes are going up, and whether those estates are already building or still being planned
- Whether the town serves a wider region, the way Mildura serves Sunraysia or Warrnambool the Great South Coast
- What's already there, including the nearest showroom of the brand you'd be joining
Each National Floors territory covers roughly a 60-minute drive. Our territory pages cover each area's catchment, growth areas and sources in more detail, and you can check whether your area is open in about two minutes. If you're still at the planning stage, our guides to what a flooring franchise costs and starting with a showroom or a van are good next reads.
How we put this together
Population is the ABS's estimated resident population at 30 June 2025, which is preliminary and revised each March. Growth compares 30 June 2024 with 30 June 2025. New homes are dwellings approved in the 2025–26 financial year: approvals, not completed homes. Housing targets come from the Victorian Government's Plan for Victoria. Figures per 1,000 residents are our own calculation from these numbers.
Questions
Which regional Victorian area approved the most new homes in 2025–26?
Of the 11 areas in this guide, Greater Geelong, with 3,212 new homes approved. Ballarat was next, with 1,380.
Which area grew fastest in 2024–25?
Greater Geelong grew 2.2%, the fastest of the 11 council areas here. Within Moorabool Shire, the Bacchus Marsh urban area grew 2.5%.
Are these territories still available?
When this guide was published in October 2026, all 11 were open National Floors territories. The territory map has the latest.